← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 48% | 71% | 2.06 | value: +46% ⚠ |
| Draw | 28% | 17% | 3.52 | fair |
| Pescara win | 25% | 12% | 4.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 17' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 38' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · ACF Fiorentina |
| 49' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | 🟨 | Norbert Gyömbér · Pescara |
| 53' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bruno · Pescara |
| 68' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Cristian Tello · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 22 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 14 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 0.00 | 1706.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1307.58 | 1667.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.08 | 11.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.60 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.51 |
| league points | 9.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.43 | 1.62 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| state index | -2.00 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.80 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |