← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 56% | 57% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 4.04 | fair |
| Sampdoria win | 19% | 20% | 5.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bruno Peres · AS Roma |
| 21' | ⚽ | Dennis Praet · Sampdoria |
| 29' | 🟨 | Lucas Torreira · Sampdoria |
| 51' | 🟨 | Thomas Vermaelen · AS Roma |
| 60' | 🟨 | Christian Puggioni · Sampdoria |
| 66' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 71' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Sampdoria |
| 72' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · AS Roma |
| 73' | ⚽ | Luis Muriel · Sampdoria |
| 90' | 🟨 | Francesco Totti · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sampdoria | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 212.00 | 394.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1626.06 | 1914.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.10 | 11.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.80 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| league points | 24.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 2.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.20 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 24.50 |
| state index | -0.07 | 1.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |