← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Celi Domenico, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 86% | 86% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 8% | 10.00 | fair |
| Palermo win | 4% | 6% | 24.50 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 23' | 🟨 | Robin Quaison · Palermo |
| 32' | 🟨 | Bruno Henrique · Palermo |
| 65' | 🟨 | Mato Jajalo · Palermo |
| 66' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 4.00 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 608.00 | 59.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1762.89 | 1392.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.65 | -10.27 |
| eye test v1 | 1.88 | -0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.35 | -0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| league points | 44.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.20 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 0.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | -1.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.10 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.19 | -0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.85 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |