← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 57% | 57% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.84 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 17% | 19% | 5.72 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 27' | 🟨 | Isaac Cofie · Genoa CFC |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nicolás Burdisso · Genoa CFC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 50' | ⚽ | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 54' | 🟨 | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 59' | ⚽ | Oscar Hiljemark · Genoa CFC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 66' | 🟨 | Diego Laxalt · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Olivera · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟥 | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 89' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 0 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1703.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1672.89 | 1518.99 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.95 | -52.04 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 45.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.69 |
| league points | 33.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.58 | -0.95 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |