← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 39% | 43% | 2.52 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.11 | fair |
| Empoli win | 30% | 25% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Adrian Stoian · Crotone |
| 34' | 🟨 | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 39' | ⚽ | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 56' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 57' | 🟨 | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 57' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 63' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 13 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 212.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1417.90 | 1483.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.47 | 25.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.39 | -1.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 50.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.20 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.15 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| state index | -0.67 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.43 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |