← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 80% | 77% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 18% | 7.00 | value: +23% |
| Pescara win | 6% | 5% | 15.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Danilo D'Ambrosio · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 43' | ⚽ | João Mário · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yuto Nagatomo · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 73' | ⚽ | Éder · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 3.60 |
| coach days | 88.00 | 942.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.65 | 2.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1648.99 | 1310.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 49.25 | -25.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.33 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 45.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| league points | 39.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.07 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | 1.32 | -1.87 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |