← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 65% | 60% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.42 | fair |
| Palermo win | 13% | 21% | 7.38 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 12 |
| 23 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | FC Internazionale Milano |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 52.00 | 82.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1397.18 | 1643.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.69 | 55.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 1.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.08 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.72 |
| league points | 10.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 16.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.87 | 1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.53 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |