← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 64% | 69% | 1.54 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 4.05 | fair |
| SS Lazio win | 12% | 12% | 7.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
| 16' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Marco Parolo · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 936.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 3.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1866.81 | 1661.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.54 | 13.38 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.20 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| league points | 45.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.37 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.14 | 0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |