← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 64% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.30 | fair |
| Crotone win | 13% | 16% | 7.66 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 43' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 54' | ⚽ | Federico Ceccherini · Crotone |
| 58' | 🟨 | Danilo Cataldi · Genoa CFC |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Ocampos · Genoa CFC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gian Marco Ferrari · Crotone |
| 89' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Crisetig · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.44 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 235.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.18 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1523.53 | 1413.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.14 | -20.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| league points | 23.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 62.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 0.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -2.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.88 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |