← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 54% | 55% | 1.82 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 21% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 41' | 🟨 | Juan Jesus · AS Roma |
| 75' | 🟨 | Felipe · Udinese Calcio |
| 77' | 🟨 | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Udinese Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Dacia Arena |
| coach days | 106.00 | 380.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1633.16 | 1907.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.30 | 2.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.84 |
| league points | 25.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 2.16 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 1.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.14 | 24.50 |
| state index | 0.71 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |