← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 84% | 83% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 13% | 9.45 | value: +19% |
| Pescara win | 5% | 4% | 18.79 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Andrea Coda · Pescara |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Tonelli · SSC Napoli |
| 44' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 47' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Tonelli · SSC Napoli |
| 49' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 54' | 🟨 | Albano Bizzarri · Pescara |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 23 | Shots | 8 |
| 10 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SSC Napoli | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | Stadio San Paolo |
| coach days | 594.00 | 929.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1752.48 | 1321.64 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.26 | -13.63 |
| eye test v1 | 2.51 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 45.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.56 |
| league points | 38.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 64.40 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 24.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.18 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.90 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.16 | — |
| state index | 1.41 | -1.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |