← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca Banti, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.59 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 18% | 19% | 5.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Stefano Sturaro · Juventus FC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Matías Vecino · ACF Fiorentina |
| 33' | 🟨 | Giorgio Chiellini · Juventus FC |
| 37' | ⚽ | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · ACF Fiorentina |
| 54' | ⚽ | Milan Badelj · ACF Fiorentina |
| 58' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | 🟨 | Paulo Dybala · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 22 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1689.00 | 929.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 1.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1644.56 | 1881.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.54 | -5.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 42.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 27.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 24.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.30 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |