← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 39% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 32% | 35% | 3.05 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 65' | 🟨 | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 76' | 🟨 | Mirko Valdifiori · Torino FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Domenico Berardi · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Antonino Ragusa · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 24 |
| 2 | On target | 1 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Torino FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| coach days |
| 1044.00 |
| 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1512.48 | 1582.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.27 | -14.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.80 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 17.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| state index | -0.60 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |