← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 75% | 80% | 1.30 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 5.94 | fair |
| Crotone win | 8% | 6% | 11.89 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Cristiano Lombardi · SS Lazio |
| 54' | 🟨 | Marco Festa · Crotone |
| 77' | 🟨 | Marcus Rohdén · Crotone |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ciro Immobile · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 2 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 282.00 | 191.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | — |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.23 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1651.49 | 1426.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.82 | -18.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | — |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.50 |
| league points | 34.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 63.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 33.60 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 21.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 0.53 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.06 | -2.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | -2.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |