← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 47% | 56% | 2.10 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.59 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 26% | 20% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Isaac Cofie · Genoa CFC |
| 36' | ⚽ (og) | Armando Izzo · AS Roma |
| 38' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · AS Roma |
| 49' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kevin Strootman · AS Roma |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Genoa CFC |
| 84' | 🟨 | Federico Fazio · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 221.00 | 373.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1547.52 | 1789.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.25 | 10.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.33 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 64.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.81 |
| league points | 23.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.50 |
| state index | -0.08 | 1.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |