← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Federico La Penna, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 41% | 38% | 2.38 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 39% | 3.26 | value: +28% |
| Chievo win | 29% | 23% | 3.42 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 22' | ⚽ | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alberto Grassi · Atalanta BC |
| 29' | 🟨 | Nicolas Frey · Chievo |
| 42' | ⚽ | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 62' | ⚽ | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 69' | ⚽ | Remo Freuler · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 18 |
| 2 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 21 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 830.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 3.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1548.51 | 1582.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.04 | -2.64 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | 0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.40 | 56.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.56 |
| league points | 25.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.20 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.09 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.68 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |