← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 49% | 42% | 1.98 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.27 | fair |
| Palermo win | 21% | 28% | 4.76 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Vincent Laurini · Empoli |
| 74' | 🟨 | Michel Morganella · Palermo |
| 77' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Palermo |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bruno Henrique · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 190.00 | 37.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.40 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1465.19 | 1413.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.08 | -9.61 |
| eye test v1 | -1.02 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.00 | 44.40 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.40 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.44 | -0.79 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | -0.62 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.04 | -0.76 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |