← Serie A 2016-17 · Thu, Dec 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Tagliavento, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 52% | 45% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.83 | value: +7% |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 22% | 27% | 4.40 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Raúl Albiol · SSC Napoli |
| 3' | 🟨 | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 24' | ⚽ | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Olivera · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | 🟨 | Pepe Reina · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | 🟨 | Nikola Maksimović · SSC Napoli |
| 51' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 53' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 68' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 69' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 70' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 82' | ⚽ | Mauro Zárate · ACF Fiorentina |
| 84' | 🟨 | Mauro Zárate · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Manolo Gabbiadini · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 7 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ACF Fiorentina | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Artemio Franchi |
| coach days | 1665.00 | 570.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.68 |
| elo | 1643.19 | 1750.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.77 | 23.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.20 | 1.95 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 62.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 26.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 88.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 66.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 18.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.72 | 2.42 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | 0.19 | 1.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | 1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |