← Serie A 2016-17 · Tue, Dec 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 64% | 67% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 20% | 4.38 | fair |
| Empoli win | 13% | 13% | 7.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Empoli |
| 22' | 🟨 | Guido Marilungo · Empoli |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
| 51' | ⚽ | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 53' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 74' | ⚽ | Franck Kessié · Atalanta BC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco D'Alessandro · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Empoli |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marco D'Alessandro · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 30 | Shots | 3 |
| 10 | On target | 1 |
| 14 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| coach days | 202.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1576.46 | 1470.75 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.02 | -21.10 |
| eye test v1 | 0.27 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.08 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.77 |
| league points | 29.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.38 | 0.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |