← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 53% | 52% | 1.84 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 24% | 3.85 | fair |
| ACF Fiorentina win | 21% | 24% | 4.63 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | ⚽ | Keita Baldé · SS Lazio |
| 26' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Biglia · SS Lazio |
| 49' | 🟨 | Maximiliano Olivera · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | 🟨 | Bastos · SS Lazio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Mauro Zárate · ACF Fiorentina |
| 75' | 🟨 | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 77' | 🟨 | Davide Astori · ACF Fiorentina |
| 85' | 🟨 | Carlos Sánchez · ACF Fiorentina |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ştefan Radu · SS Lazio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 261.00 | 1661.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.64 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1656.57 | 1655.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.12 | -11.89 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| league points | 31.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 15.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.71 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |