← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 64% | 64% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 23% | 4.21 | fair |
| Palermo win | 13% | 14% | 7.69 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Siniša Anđelković · Palermo |
| 42' | ⚽ | Robin Quaison · Palermo |
| 45' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Palermo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Olivier Ntcham · Genoa CFC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 57' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mato Jajalo · Palermo |
| 65' | ⚽ | Nikola Ninković · Genoa CFC |
| 68' | 🟨 | Edenilson · Genoa CFC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 88' | ⚽ | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟥 | Mattia Perin · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Aleksandar Trajkovski · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 200.00 | 17.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1571.03 | 1402.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.48 | -37.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.63 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 54.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| league points | 23.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.64 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 0.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.34 | 0.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| state index | 0.30 | -1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.19 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |