← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 43% | 40% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 33% | 3.28 | value: +9% |
| Sampdoria win | 27% | 27% | 3.68 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 18' | 🟨 | Vasco Regini · Sampdoria |
| 41' | 🟨 | Christian Puggioni · Sampdoria |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 61' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Patrik Schick · Sampdoria |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 10 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Sampdoria |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 809.00 | 170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1545.59 | 1522.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.52 | 22.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.93 | 0.58 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 58.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| league points | 22.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.37 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| state index | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |