← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 42% | 40% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.22 | value: +4% |
| Atalanta BC win | 27% | 28% | 3.57 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Leonardo Spinazzola · Atalanta BC |
| 26' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 36' | 🟨 | Andrea Masiello · Atalanta BC |
| 64' | 🟨 | Andrea Bertolacci · AC Milan |
| 74' | 🟨 | Mario Pašalić · AC Milan |
| 74' | 🟨 | Andrea Conti · Atalanta BC |
| 86' | 🟨 | Andrea Petagna · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marco Sportiello · Atalanta BC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 23 | Fouls | 28 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AC Milan | Atalanta BC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| coach days | 199.00 | 199.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.78 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1649.90 | 1572.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.85 | 24.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.45 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 23.17 | — |
| state index | 0.64 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |