← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Nicola Rizzoli, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli win | 47% | 46% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.40 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 24% | 28% | 4.03 | value: +14% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Simone Padoin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 8' | ⚽ | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 14' | 🟨 | Riccardo Saponara · Empoli |
| 35' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Empoli |
| 42' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 43' | 🟨 | Federico Melchiorri · Cagliari Calcio |
| 45' | 🟨 | Guido Marilungo · Empoli |
| 55' | 🟨 | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 65' | 🟨 | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 71' | 🟨 | Mauricio Isla · Cagliari Calcio |
| 72' | ⚽ | Levan Mch'edlidze · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alberto Gilardino · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 23 | Fouls | 17 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 169.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.90 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1458.11 | 1463.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.46 | -20.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.61 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.49 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 60.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.56 |
| league points | 11.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 38.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.40 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 8.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.15 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.92 | -0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |