← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Internazionale Milano win | 60% | 64% | 1.64 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 24% | 21% | 4.11 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 16% | 15% | 5.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Lucas Ocampos · Genoa CFC |
| 28' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jeison Murillo · FC Internazionale Milano |
| 69' | ⚽ | Marcelo Brozović · FC Internazionale Milano |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Internazionale Milano | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 40.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.29 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1587.99 | 1571.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.33 | -3.41 |
| eye test v1 | 1.05 | -0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.32 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 21.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.52 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 20.00 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.52 | -0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.27 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |