← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSC Napoli win | 65% | 64% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 20% | 4.64 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 14% | 17% | 7.13 | value: +18% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Mauricio Isla · Cagliari Calcio |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 36' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Kalidou Koulibaly · SSC Napoli |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
| 51' | ⚽ | Piotr Zieliński · SSC Napoli |
| 62' | 🟨 | Elseid Hysaj · SSC Napoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Simone Padoin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 69' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 72' | ⚽ | Dries Mertens · SSC Napoli |
| 74' | 🟨 | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 74' | 🟨 | Marek Hamšík · SSC Napoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 11 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.42 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 559.00 | 559.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1472.52 | 1734.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.70 | -1.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | 1.04 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.65 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| league points | 20.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.00 | 61.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.87 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.80 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.87 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.95 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |