← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 43% | 45% | 2.26 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Empoli win | 26% | 27% | 3.71 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 67' | 🟨 | Andrea Costa · Empoli |
| 75' | 🟨 | Daniele Croce · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emil Krafth · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcel Büchel · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| coach days | 437.00 | 163.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1477.12 | 1455.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.68 | -14.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.70 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| league points | 16.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.07 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |