← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 11, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Fabio Maresca, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta BC win | 55% | 55% | 1.78 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.64 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 18% | 21% | 5.45 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Danilo · Udinese Calcio |
| 45' | ⚽ | Duván Zapata · Udinese Calcio |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jasmin Kurtić · Atalanta BC |
| 66' | 🟨 | Papu Gómez · Atalanta BC |
| 72' | ⚽ | Seko Fofana · Udinese Calcio |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stipe Perica · Udinese Calcio |
| 87' | ⚽ | Cyril Théréau · Udinese Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Atalanta BC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 193.00 | 71.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.57 | 2.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1594.56 | 1483.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 62.62 | -0.88 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.61 | 0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.57 |
| league points | 28.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.87 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.04 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 24.93 |
| state index | 1.00 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.62 | -0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |