← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Carmine Russo, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 39% | 43% | 2.50 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 32% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 29% | 29% | 3.36 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Riccardo Meggiorini · Chievo |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ezequiel Muñoz · Genoa CFC |
| 61' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 73' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Darko Lazović · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 796.00 | 187.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.01 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1533.74 | 1570.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.15 | 15.31 |
| eye test v1 | -0.66 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 51.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.73 |
| league points | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.22 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.35 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |