← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 54% | 46% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.73 | value: +9% |
| Empoli win | 20% | 25% | 4.88 | value: +21% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟨 | Łukasz Skorupski · Empoli |
| 22' | ⚽ (pen) | Lorenzo Pellegrini · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Federico Barba · Empoli |
| 35' | 🟨 | Daniele Croce · Empoli |
| 36' | ⚽ (pen) | Federico Ricci · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Antonino Ragusa · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 44' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 53' | ⚽ | Antonino Ragusa · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 61' | 🟨 | José Mauri · Empoli |
| 66' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 68' | 🟨 | Francesco Magnanelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 69' | 🟨 | Luca Antei · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 81' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 1009.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.37 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1545.74 | 1466.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.59 | -7.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.60 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.64 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.90 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.60 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 41.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.40 | -13.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | -0.29 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.77 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |