← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 4, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Doveri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 43% | 45% | 2.26 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 28% | 28% | 3.45 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 28' | 🟨 | Davide Di Gennaro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ledian Memushaj · Pescara |
| 30' | 🟨 | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 34' | 🟨 | Davide Di Gennaro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 34' | 🟥 | Davide Di Gennaro · Cagliari Calcio |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ahmad Benali · Pescara |
| 73' | 🟨 | Marco Borriello · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 6 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 20 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 887.00 | 552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.25 | 3.09 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1334.22 | 1474.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.93 | -9.73 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.61 |
| league points | 7.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.00 | -0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| state index | -1.61 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |