← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 80% | 85% | 1.22 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 13% | 10% | 7.70 | fair |
| Pescara win | 7% | 5% | 14.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 10' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 31' | 🟨 | Cristiano Biraghi · Pescara |
| 32' | 🟨 | Antonio Rüdiger · AS Roma |
| 39' | 🟨 | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ledian Memushaj · Pescara |
| 62' | 🟨 | Emerson Palmieri · AS Roma |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dario Župarić · Pescara |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Diego Perotti · AS Roma |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 82' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 20 | Fouls | 21 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AS Roma | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.48 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 331.00 | 880.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.44 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1889.84 | 1522.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.85 | -44.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.57 | -0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.06 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.34 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| league points | 26.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 2.79 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 0.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.17 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.90 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.50 | — |
| state index | 1.43 | -1.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |