← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Guida, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 56% | 60% | 1.74 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.89 | fair |
| Palermo win | 18% | 18% | 5.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Senad Lulić · SS Lazio |
| 31' | ⚽ | Sergej Milinković-Savić · SS Lazio |
| 41' | 🟨 | Edoardo Goldaniga · Palermo |
| 42' | 🟨 | Alessandro Diamanti · Palermo |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ouasim Bouy · Palermo |
| 86' | 🟥 | Giancarlo González · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 18 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | SS Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 87.00 | 240.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 4.74 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1423.41 | 1655.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.40 | 28.70 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.40 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.32 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.82 |
| league points | 6.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.46 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.48 | 0.17 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.20 |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.76 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.38 | -0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |