← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 61% | 65% | 1.61 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 14% | 12% | 7.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 13' | ⚽ | Giovanni Simeone · Genoa CFC |
| 24' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Genoa CFC |
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Alex Sandro · Genoa CFC |
| 77' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Isaac Cofie · Genoa CFC |
| 82' | ⚽ | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Davide Biraschi · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stefano Sturaro · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 26 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 179.00 | 880.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 2.38 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1545.71 | 1887.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.48 | -3.53 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | 0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.20 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.80 | 37.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | — |
| league points | 16.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 2.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.10 | 1.58 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| state index | -0.29 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |