← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianpaolo Calvarese, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 43% | 51% | 2.29 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 24% | 3.32 | fair |
| Empoli win | 28% | 25% | 3.55 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Alessio Romagnoli · AC Milan |
| 15' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · AC Milan |
| 17' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · Empoli |
| 31' | 🟨 | Juraj Kucka · AC Milan |
| 37' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 43' | 🟨 | Giacomo Bonaventura · AC Milan |
| 61' | ⚽ | Suso · AC Milan |
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Andrea Costa · AC Milan |
| 77' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 148.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1479.27 | 1638.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.41 | 1.02 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.64 | 0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.80 |
| league points | 10.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -14.40 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | — | 23.17 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |