← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS Lazio win | 57% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.97 | fair |
| Genoa CFC win | 19% | 19% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Felipe Anderson · SS Lazio |
| 52' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Genoa CFC |
| 57' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Biglia · SS Lazio |
| 60' | 🟨 | Tomás Rincón · Genoa CFC |
| 65' | ⚽ | Wallace · SS Lazio |
| 87' | 🟨 | Miguel Veloso · Genoa CFC |
| 88' | 🟨 | Patric · SS Lazio |
| 88' | 🟨 | Edenilson · Genoa CFC |
| 90' | 🟥 | Lucas Orbán · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 14 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SS Lazio | Genoa CFC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico |
| coach days | 233.00 | 172.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.99 | 2.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1646.48 | 1554.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.66 | -15.98 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.00 | 50.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.40 |
| state index | 0.75 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |