← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Davide Massa, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 48% | 51% | 2.05 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.54 | fair |
| Empoli win | 24% | 23% | 4.01 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 35' | 🟨 | Cristian Tello · ACF Fiorentina |
| 37' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
| 39' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 47' | ⚽ (pen) | Josip Iličić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 57' | 🟨 | Borja Valero · ACF Fiorentina |
| 61' | ⚽ | Federico Bernardeschi · ACF Fiorentina |
| 67' | ⚽ | Josip Iličić · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 24 |
| 6 | On target | 13 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 142.00 | 1633.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 8.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 3.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1491.85 | 1670.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.32 | 13.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 1.23 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.58 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.60 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.89 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.76 |
| league points | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 61.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.40 | 8.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 1.85 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| state index | -0.08 | 0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.16 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |