← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Fabbri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 83% | 88% | 1.18 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 12% | 9% | 8.25 | fair |
| Pescara win | 5% | 3% | 18.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | ⚽ | Sami Khedira · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alessandro Crescenzi · Pescara |
| 63' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Hernanes · Juventus FC |
| 87' | 🟨 | Alessandro Bruno · Pescara |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 872.00 | 872.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.46 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1886.30 | 1336.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.43 | -32.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 41.70 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| league points | 30.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 0.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.35 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| state index | 1.53 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |