← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 19, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Claudio Gavillucci, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 49% | 50% | 1.99 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.41 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 22% | 24% | 4.47 | value: +5% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Luca Bittante · Cagliari Calcio |
| 40' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
| 57' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
| 62' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Chievo |
| 88' | 🟨 | Gianni Munari · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.49 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.51 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 780.00 | 537.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1533.83 | 1472.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.27 | -8.00 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 57.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| league points | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 39.00 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -1.03 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -1.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |