← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Daniele Orsato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 40% | 49% | 2.44 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.27 | fair |
| Empoli win | 30% | 23% | 3.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
| 16' | 🟨 | Rade Krunić · Empoli |
| 23' | ⚽ | Manuel Pucciarelli · Empoli |
| 32' | 🟨 | Gianluca Caprari · Pescara |
| 44' | ⚽ | Massimo Maccarone · Empoli |
| 68' | 🟨 | Michele Fornasier · Pescara |
| 89' | ⚽ | Riccardo Saponara · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pescara | Empoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| venue | Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia |
| coach days | 859.00 | 128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.14 | 1.52 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.24 |
| elo | 1351.57 | 1476.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.84 | 2.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.30 | -0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | 0.19 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| league points | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.60 | 45.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -14.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 6.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.21 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.37 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.06 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |