← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan win | 55% | 55% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
| Palermo win | 19% | 20% | 5.18 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Suso · AC Milan |
| 26' | 🟨 | Mattia De Sciglio · AC Milan |
| 64' | 🟨 | Thiago Cionek · Palermo |
| 71' | ⚽ | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 82' | ⚽ | Gianluca Lapadula · AC Milan |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alessandro Diamanti · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 23 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Palermo | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.38 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Renzo Barbera |
| coach days | 66.00 | 158.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1439.85 | 1636.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.55 | 21.62 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.20 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.74 |
| league points | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.63 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.55 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | — | 23.74 |
| state index | -1.39 | 0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | -0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |