← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Manganiello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa CFC win | 50% | 52% | 1.96 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.52 | fair |
| Udinese Calcio win | 22% | 20% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Cyril Théréau · Udinese Calcio |
| 24' | ⚽ | Lucas Ocampos · Genoa CFC |
| 52' | 🟨 | Duván Zapata · Udinese Calcio |
| 53' | 🟨 | Luca Rigoni · Genoa CFC |
| 79' | 🟨 | Nikola Ninković · Genoa CFC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Genoa CFC | Udinese Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Luigi Ferraris |
| coach days | 158.00 | 36.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1558.20 | 1485.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.31 | 13.05 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.32 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.63 |
| league points | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.27 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.88 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.27 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.80 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |