← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Nov 6, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 60% | 68% | 1.63 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 26% | 19% | 3.74 | fair |
| Chievo win | 14% | 13% | 7.19 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | 🟨 | Dario Dainelli · Chievo |
| 34' | 🟨 | Massimo Gobbi · Chievo |
| 40' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ivan Radovanović · Chievo |
| 48' | 🟨 | Juan Cuadrado · Juventus FC |
| 53' | ⚽ | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stephan Lichtsteiner · Juventus FC |
| 66' | ⚽ (pen) | Sergio Pellissier · Chievo |
| 75' | ⚽ | Miralem Pjanić · Juventus FC |
| 80' | 🟨 | Stefano Sturaro · Juventus FC |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jonathan de Guzmán · Chievo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fabrizio Cacciatore · Chievo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 20 | Fouls | 14 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chievo | Juventus FC |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| venue | Marc'Antonio Bentegodi |
| coach days | 767.00 | 859.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 3.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1537.06 | 1883.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.24 | -2.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.23 | 0.83 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.61 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.40 | 47.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 15.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.36 | 2.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.25 | 1.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |