← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Maurizio Mariani, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torino FC win | 62% | 64% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 19% | 4.39 | fair |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 15% | 18% | 6.47 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 10' | ⚽ | Adem Ljajić · Torino FC |
| 27' | 🟨 | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 38' | ⚽ | Marco Benassi · Torino FC |
| 41' | ⚽ | Federico Melchiorri · Cagliari Calcio |
| 51' | ⚽ | Daniele Baselli · Torino FC |
| 58' | 🟨 | Diego Farias · Cagliari Calcio |
| 58' | 🟥 | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Andrea Belotti · Torino FC |
| 74' | 🟨 | Luca Ceppitelli · Cagliari Calcio |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 10 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Torino FC | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 127.00 | 523.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1575.31 | 1483.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.63 | 10.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.87 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 46.80 | 58.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.62 |
| league points | 16.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 42.20 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.33 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.93 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |