← Serie A 2016-17 · Mon, Oct 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Massimiliano Irrati, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 56% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.84 | fair |
| Palermo win | 19% | 19% | 5.28 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Andrea Rispoli · Palermo |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marco Sau · Cagliari Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fabio Pisacane · Cagliari Calcio |
| 33' | 🟨 | Robin Quaison · Palermo |
| 53' | ⚽ | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 57' | 🟨 | Simone Padoin · Cagliari Calcio |
| 64' | ⚽ | Daniele Dessena · Cagliari Calcio |
| 78' | 🟨 | Marco Storari · Cagliari Calcio |
| 79' | ⚽ | Ilija Nestorovski · Palermo |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolò Barella · Cagliari Calcio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Haitam Aleesami · Palermo |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 19 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| venue | Sant'Elia |
| coach days | 518.00 | 60.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.81 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1476.22 | 1447.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.19 | -38.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.44 | -0.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 49.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.68 |
| league points | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.00 | 48.40 |
| rest days | 5.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.57 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.86 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.40 |
| state index | -0.24 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |