← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Marco Di Bello, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 60% | 72% | 1.63 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 23% | 15% | 4.21 | fair |
| Empoli win | 16% | 13% | 6.02 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Frédéric Veseli · Empoli |
| 18' | 🟨 | Giuseppe Bellusci · Empoli |
| 30' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Manolas · AS Roma |
| 35' | 🟨 | Manuel Pasqual · Empoli |
| 62' | 🟨 | Assane Dioussé · Empoli |
| 67' | 🟨 | Alberto Gilardino · Empoli |
| 68' | 🟨 | Daniele De Rossi · AS Roma |
| 76' | 🟨 | Andrés Tello · Empoli |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mohamed Salah · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 23 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 18 | Fouls | 13 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Empoli | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Carlo Castellani |
| coach days | 121.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1470.41 | 1780.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.73 | 29.45 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | 1.02 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.60 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.80 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -12.40 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 17.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.44 | 0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 23.20 |
| state index | -0.96 | 1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |