← Serie A 2016-17 · Sun, Oct 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Luca J. Pairetto, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chievo win | 41% | 49% | 2.39 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 30% | 25% | 3.24 | fair |
| Crotone win | 29% | 26% | 3.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Përparim Hetemaj · Chievo |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcello Trotta · Crotone |
| 60' | 🟨 | Aleandro Rosi · Crotone |
| 76' | 🟨 | Nicolás Spolli · Chievo |
| 90' | ⚽ | Diego Falcinelli · Crotone |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 19 | Fouls | 21 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Chievo |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Ezio Scida |
| coach days | 121.00 | 760.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | — | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1436.45 | 1554.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.12 | -15.67 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | — | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.71 |
| league points | 2.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.04 | 4.04 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.20 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.17 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.16 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | — | 1.40 |