← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Gianluca Rocchi, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus FC win | 54% | 63% | 1.80 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 28% | 22% | 3.53 | fair |
| SSC Napoli win | 18% | 15% | 5.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | 🟨 | Giorgio Chiellini · Juventus FC |
| 22' | 🟨 | Alex Sandro · Juventus FC |
| 30' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Insigne · SSC Napoli |
| 50' | ⚽ | Leonardo Bonucci · Juventus FC |
| 54' | ⚽ | José Callejón · SSC Napoli |
| 61' | 🟨 | Hernanes · Juventus FC |
| 70' | ⚽ | Gonzalo Higuaín · Juventus FC |
| 85' | 🟨 | Mario Mandžukić · Juventus FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Juventus FC | SSC Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Allianz Stadium |
| coach days | 851.00 | 516.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.69 | 2.69 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1878.31 | 1735.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.83 | -18.26 |
| eye test v1 | 1.18 | 1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.42 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.40 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.20 | 59.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 9.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.20 | 19.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.41 | 1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.20 |
| squad age | — | 26.16 |
| state index | 1.63 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |