← Serie A 2016-17 · Sat, Oct 29, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Paolo Valeri, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACF Fiorentina win | 47% | 41% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 33% | 3.47 | value: +15% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 25% | 26% | 3.98 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Mbaye · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 29' | 🟥 | Daniele Gastaldello · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 31' | ⚽ (pen) | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 41' | 🟨 | Nikola Kalinić · ACF Fiorentina |
| 52' | 🟨 | Carlos Salcedo · ACF Fiorentina |
| 74' | 🟨 | Blerim Džemaili · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Adam Masina · Bologna FC 1909 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nenad Tomović · ACF Fiorentina |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | ACF Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Stadio Renato Dall'Ara |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 394.00 | 1611.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 8.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.67 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1500.80 | 1660.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.59 | 0.52 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 1.58 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.93 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.74 |
| league points | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 63.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.30 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.61 | 2.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| state index | -0.25 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 1.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |