← Serie A 2016-17 · Wed, Oct 26, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Antonio Damato, Italy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 52% | 45% | 1.88 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | 3.79 | value: +12% |
| US Sassuolo Calcio win | 22% | 26% | 4.49 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Paolo Cannavaro · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 30' | 🟨 | Luca Mazzitelli · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 57' | ⚽ | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 72' | 🟨 | Lorenzo Pellegrini · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 75' | 🟨 | Pol Lirola · US Sassuolo Calcio |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Edin Dzeko · AS Roma |
| 78' | ⚽ | Radja Nainggolan · AS Roma |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 11 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | US Sassuolo Calcio | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 970.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.36 | 3.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1709.32 | 1887.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.24 | 21.14 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 1.09 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.50 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 2.11 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 27.04 | 26.62 |
| state index | 0.28 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |